Philosophy of Cognitive Stock Charts智能股票图表的原理
| Human minds are much less than random, the best ambiguities they can achieve are a less random phenomenon called Chaos in mathematic and physic jargon. Just like we don't need to understanding each cell in a human body to tell if it is healthy or not, we don't need to understand chaotic mathematic theory to read Cognitive Stock Charts. Cognitive Stock Charts treat the market like a human body and use the systematic methods similar to Chinese traditional medicine to tell the healthy status of the market. A healthy market is a growing market while an unhealthy market is a sinking one.
人类大脑是很少随机的，它们所能达到的最大的不明确也是一个很少的随机现象，用数学和医学上的术语来说叫做“混乱、混沌”。正如我们所知道的，我们不需要通过了解身体上的每个细胞才能确定身体的好坏那样，我们同样不需要理解混沌数学理论就能解读智能股票图表。智能股票图表用系统的方法来判断市场的健康状况，就象中国的中药来治疗人的身体。健康的市场是一个成长的市场，而不健康的市场是一个下滑的市场。
Without modern instruments to probe the inner structures of a human body, Chinese traditional medicine developed a system to find the sickness of human body based on a very few outputs of human body: the pulse of heart, the breath of lung, the smell of stomach and the appearance of body. Ancient Chinese doctors thought that the health of a body is governed by two kinds of indispensable energies called Yin energy and Yang energy. While Yin is negative to reflect the passive side of the relation between the body and the Universe, Yang is positive to represent the active side of such relation. Yin and Yang are dynamically balanced to contribute a healthy body and any destruction of such dynamic balance will lead to some kind of sickness. 中国的中医不需借助现代化的设备来探测身体内部的结构就能发现身体的发病部位，那是因为中医发展了一套自己的诊疗系统，它只要根据身体输出的少量信息就能做出判断，该信息就是：脉搏的跳动，肺的呼吸，胃气的气味，人的气色。古代中医认为，身体的健康状况是由两种必不可少的能量所支配的：阴、阳。阴是负面的，它反映的是身体和宇宙关系中被动消极的一面；阳是正面的，它反映的是身体和宇宙关系中积极的一面。阴阳动态平衡来维持一个健康的身体，一旦破坏这种动态平衡就会导致生病。 A human body is a complex system and so is a stock market. Based on basic chaotic dynamic theory, a human body and a stock market share many factors such as emergent phenomena and self-organization, etc. It is impossible to invent simple statistic models to predict the behaviors of such kind of complex system. The most efficient way so far found in this Universe for modeling this kind of extremely complex systems, is surprisingly wildly available in the market; namely, the human brains. However, although human brains are the most efficient instruments to model the stock markets, they are unfortunately not the most effective ones because human brains can only work for short time periods and for low mental pressures. Therefore, even the most able professionals in Wall Street can make the stupidest movements. This is also the reason that professional traders need computers to tell them the trends. 人的身体是一个很复杂的系统，股票市场也是如此。基于基本的混沌动态理论，人的身体和股票市场拥有许多共同的特点，比如：突发事件，自我调控，等等。建立一个简单的统计模型来预测这样一个复杂系统的行为是不可能的。到目前为止，令人惊讶的是在宇宙中能找到的、对这个非常复杂系统进行建模最有效的方法广泛地存在于股票市场中，换句话说，就是人的大脑。虽然人的大脑是给股票市场建模最有效的工具，但是，很不幸的是它不是最有功效的，因为人的大脑只能做短时间内的高强度工作。因此，即便是华尔街能干的专家都有可能会误操作。这就是为什么资深的交易员也需要计算机来告诉他们股票的发展趋势。 Yet, a computer with conventional technical analysis software can only offer very limited information to the traders. While this kind of computer is merely function as a data-visualizing device, the trader must to interpret the data in the form of trends and curves. Therefore, the professionals in Wall Street hired the smartest mathematicians to make their own tools for data mining the market data just because the combination of (data-visualization devices + traders) is simply unreliable. If you can not offer to hire the smartest mathematicians, and you get sick of the (data-visualization devices + traders) combination, the Cognitive Stock Charts will provide you with a promising alternative way to analyze the market. 运用传统技术分析软件的计算机只能给交易者提供非常有限的信息，而这种计算机仅仅只能充当数据显示的设备，交易者必须自己解读曲线图、趋势图上的数据。所以，华尔街的专家们会雇佣最精明的数学家来制作自己的市场数据采集工具，因为简单的组合（数据显示设备+交易者）是不可靠的。如果你无法雇佣精明的数学家，如果你对现有的组合（数据显示设备+交易者）不是很满意，智能股票图表将是你分析股票市场的另一个具有前途的选择。 The philosophy of Cognitive Stock Charts is not to fight against the markets, rather than joint force with the markets to fight against other traders. In a word, you can not get profits from the market because the market is only a platform, itself has no money. You get your profit from other traders. Cognitive Stock Charts observe market from only two factors: the negative money energy and the positive money energy. 智能股票图表的理念不是用来对付市场的，而是结合市场的力量来对付其他交易者的。总之，你不可能从市场中获得利润，因为市场仅仅是一个操作平台，它本身是没有钱的，你是从其他的交易者那里获取利润。智能股票图表只从两方面来观察市场：负货币能量和正货币能量。 Negative money energy is caused by the panic and loss of confidence of traders to the market. Positive money energy is caused by the high expectation and confidence of traders to the market. Negative money energy contributes to the crash of stock price and positive money energy contributes to the increase of the price. Since the negative energy is the cause of price decreases, we can predict a dip of a stock by observe the history of negative energy. On the other hand, since the positive energy is the cause of price increases, even in a depressed market we can predict the coming increasing cycle by observing the accumulation of positive energy. 负货币能量是由于交易者对市场的信心丧失和对市场的恐慌引起的。正货币能量是由于交易者对市场充满期望和信心引起的。负货币能量导致股票价格下滑，而正货币能量会引起股票价格的上升。由于负货币能量是引起价格下跌的原因，所以，通过观察股票的历史负能量，我们可以预测一只股票的低谷阶段。同样地，由于正能量是引起价格上扬的原因，通过观察累积的正能量，即使在熊市中我们也可以预测即将到来的上涨阶段。 In the rest of this webpage, let us to learn the most basics of Cognitive Stock Charts. 下面，我们来学习怎样看懂最简单的智能股票图表 |
Components of a Cognitive Stock Chart 智能股票图表的组成 |
| As shown in the following example, the interface of a Cognitive Stock Chart consists of the following four horizontal windows.
在下面所示的图例中可以看出，智能股票图表的界面是由四个水平的窗口组成的：
1. Short-term price and market energy. 2. Long-term price, market energy and computational verbs. 3. Negative money energy and positive money energy. 4. YangSky Index. 1.短期价格和市场能量； 2.长期价格、市场能量和计算动词； 3.负货币能量和正货币能量； 4.YangSky指数。 We shall inspect the details in each window one by one. 接下来，我们来查看每个图表的细节 |
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| 1. Short-term price and market energy. 短期价格和市场能量
The following two figures show the first and the second halves of the first window. In the first half, the strange-look trajectory-like curves in the white box at the left-bottom represents the [phase plot of the chaotic attractor] of the short-term [price & money energy] relations. From this attractor an expert can find the short-term market movements, however, we don't suggest starters to use this feature because an inexperienced trader can make very risky decision based on the “pipe-view” of the short-term curves. No short-term trends are provided because we believe short-term trends can be manipulated by powerful traders and therefore, can be very misleading. Instead, the trader need to base on the long-term trends, which will be shown in the second window, for the trend information. 下面的两个图表分别是第一个窗口图表的前后两半。在前半个图表中，在左下角的白框中有一条奇怪的象轨迹一样的曲线呈现的是短期[价格和货币能量]关系的[混沌吸引子的状态图]。一个专家可以从这个吸引子中看出短期市场的动态，但是，我们建议初学者不要利用该特性来操作，因为对于一个没有经验的交易者来说，通过观察这条短期的曲线很容易做出非常危险的决定。在这里，我们没有给出短期趋势图，因为我们相信短期趋势图可以由强大的交易者来人为控制，这将会非常误导人的。相反的，交易者需要查看长期趋势，这将在第二个窗口中显示趋势信息。 The light purple date, time and year shows on the left-bottom shows the sample time of the first trading price data displayed in this window. The green thick curve is the short-term price trends. The dim gray think irregular curves around the green curve is the trading price within each day. The thick white curve is the money energy. Money energy is useful to determine the strength of the force to push or pull the price. In many case, money energy can be used as an index for predicting the movement of the price. 该窗口举例说明了第一次交易价格的数据，在左下角的淡紫色的日期、时间和年份是该交易的时间。那条粗的绿色曲线是短期价格趋势，在绿色曲线附近的那条淡灰色的不规则曲线是当天的交易价格，那条粗的白色曲线是货币能量。货币能量有助于决定拉升或下跌价格的力量。在许多情况下，货币能量可以作为预测价格活动的指数。 |
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The second half shows three more parameters: the highest and the lowest price in the short-term window and date, time and year when the last data was collected. 后半个图表显示的是另外三个参数：短期内的最高价、最低价，以及最近一次收集数据的日期。 |
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| 2. Long-term price, market energy and computational verbs. 长期价格、市场能量和计算动词 |
Almost the same as that in the first window, only this time the time can be ranged form more than ten years. The first half of the second window shows the date when the first of the first price, the highest and the lowest prices. The most important information shown in this window is different regions of price increasing and price decreasing. This information is very useful for traders to understand the history of this stock and the increase and decrease patterns in the past. The bright blue and the dark blue background representing the increasing and decreasing regions, respectively. 这个窗口几乎与第一个窗口相同，只是这一次时间的变动范围可以在十年以上。第二个窗口的前半个窗口显示的是第一次价格的时间，最高价和最低价。在这个窗口中显示的最重要的信息是不同的价格上升和价格下降区间。这个信息有利于交易者了解这只股票的历史以及该股票在过去上升和下降的模式。亮蓝区域和深蓝区域背景分别代表上升区间和下降区间。 |
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The second half of the window 2 shows the date of the last price points and observe that the space of price point in the last one year before the last date is wider than that for previous years. The double scale displaying schedule is very useful to magnify the details of the data within the last year for precise decision making. The non-developer user don’t need to know the meanings and the programming procedure using computational verbs. 第二个窗口的后半个窗口显示的是最后价格点的日期，观察去年一年价格点的空间可以看出该空间大于以往几年。放大两倍的图表更有利于观察去年的数据细节，便于做出精确的决定。非开发用户在使用计算动词时不需要知道它的含义和编程程序。 |
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3. Negative money energy and positive money energy. 负货币能量和正货币能量 |
| The thick yellow curve show the negative money energy and the thin red curve show the positive money energy. Observe that the dim gray lines give the boundary of data of one year. The horizontal direction of the data in the last one year is also magnified to give details of the most recent data. 粗的黄色曲线代表的是负货币能量，细的红色曲线代表的是正货币能量。淡灰色线给出了一年的界限。水平方向的去年一年的数据也做了放大，便于观察最近数据的细节变动。 |
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4. YangSky Index 杨氏（YangSky）指数 |
YangSky Index is very useful to understand the US stock market as a whole. In this case, the individual stocks contribute to the YangSky Index in a very complex way. YangSky Index is not a weighted sum or average of anything directly related to the stock prices. We believe that the stock prices can be manipulated by big traders and therefore can not serve the purpose of probing the "feeling"; namely, the cognitive aspects of the market. As shown in the following image, the cognitive behavior of US stock market was changed qualitatively from a valued market to a speculated market about 10 years ago. Just by observing the relation between the positive energy (red curve) and the negative energy (yellow curve) , one can see that before the breakpoint 10 years ago, the dominate force in the US stock market is positive energy while after that breakpoint, the dominate energy in the US market become negative. When the some one buy stocks in 1970s'. s/he could expect to hold the stocks for 10 years and gain a significant capital gain when s/he need the money in 1980s. This is because from 1970s to 1980s, the US stock market has a net income of positive energy. As a results, the value of the stocks you hold for long time was usually growing along time.. However, when a people buy stocks after 1996, if s/he wants to hold the stock for 10 years and still gain enough profits, s/he was day dreaming. YangSky Index show it in such a simple way: after 1995, the negative energy became dominate the US market and therefore, a stock held for 10 years should be virtually like a stock held for 1 year, if not worse. In today's US market, you need to shift boat fast and must take advantage of short-term gains. It is not your parents' kind of stock market anymore. 总体上来说，杨氏（YangSky）指数在了解美国股市上非常有用。在这种情况下，个体股票以非常复杂的方式得出了杨氏（YangSky）指数。杨氏（YangSky）指数不是任何与股票价格有直接联系的数据的简单总和和平均。我们相信，股票价格可以被大的交易者（庄家）所控制，因此，这不能作为预测“感觉”的手段，也就是说，市场感知的一面。象下图所示的那样，美国股票市场的感知行为在10年前从一个有价值的市场质变成一个投机的。只要观察正能量（红色曲线）和负能量（黄色曲线）之间的关系，你就可以看出：在突破点10年前主宰美国市场的力量是正能量，然而，在那点以后，主宰美国市场的力量变成负能量。如果有人在1970年代买了股票，假设他（她）将该股票持有了10年，当他（她）在1980年代卖掉的话，将会有一个很显著的投资回报。这是因为1970年代到1980年代，美国股票市场的正能量有一个净收入，作为结果，你长期持有的股票其价值会随着时间延长而增长。然而，当一个人在1996年之后购买股票，如果他（她）想通过持有股票10年以上仍然想获得足够的利润，那简直就是白日做梦。杨氏（YangSky）指数通过一个简单的方式来表示：1995年以后，负能量开始主宰美国股票市场，因此，一个股票持有10年实际上等同于一个股票持有1年，如果不够糟糕的话。现在的美国市场，你必须很快地换股并且获取短期收益。现在的股票市场再也不是父母时代的股票市场模式了。 |
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May 01, 2006 Signaling a Bear Market in 3 to 6 Months 2006年5月1日预示3-6月后将是一个熊市Where is the direction of the market within half year or so? Let us take a look at the following figure showing the dynamics of YangSky Index during the last two years before April 28, 2006. The first half of this figure shows that in the first year, the negative energy and the positive energy are keep virtually balanced. Therefore, it is a reasonably healthy and bull market. However, take a look at the second half of the image when the second year is concerned. About half years ago, the negative energy accumulate with a much faster speed than the first year and the positive energy keeping decreasing. The Yin-Yang balance had been entirely destroyed and this is a very very dangerous sign that usually seen before a huge crash of US stock market. Since the delay of action to this Yin-Yang unbalance, we expect the crash will happen anywhere between into the future 3 months to half year. Only when the positive energy regain ground that this crash can be avoid. However, we can not see anything implies that direction. Be prepared and enjoy a bear market soon. (May 01, 2006. the Department of Cognitive Economics, Yang's Scientific Research Institute, LLC., Tucson, Arizona, USA. ) 半年内市场的发展趋势是什么呢？接下来让我们看看下面的图表，该图表显示了2006年4月28日前的两年内杨氏（YangSky）指数的动态。该图表的前半部分显示说明，在前一年负能量和正能量是保持平衡的。因此，这是一个合理健康的牛市。但是，看一下后半部分关于后一年的图表，大概在半年以前，负能量以比第一年快很多的速度在累积，而正能量一直在下降。阴-阳平衡被完全破坏，这是一个非常危险的信号，预示着美国股票市场即将有一个巨大的下滑。由于对这个阴-阳不平衡的状态做出动作反应有一个滞后，我们预测该市场崩溃的时间可能发生在未来的3——6个月内。只有当正能量重新积聚反弹，才能避免此次的市场崩溃。然而，我们没有看到任何往这方向发展的迹象。请做好马上进入熊市的准备。 |
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Historical Analysis 历史分析 |
| 1987 crash can be clearly seen caused by a significant accumulation of negative energy as highlighted in the following image. Observe that during this crash a weak peak of positive energy try to gain ground to fight back. However, this positive peak was soon pushed away by a even higher peak from the same negative energy pack. The second peak just make the crash worse. However, they are the same. The enlarge of this portion of image is show as the second picture for this analysis. 在下面的图表中，很清楚地看到1987年的崩盘很明显是由于积聚的负能量引起的。可以看到，在崩盘期间，曾有一股很弱的正能量高峰企图做出反击。然而，这股正能量峰很快被一股更为强劲的负能量高峰给冲刷掉了。这第二股高峰使这个崩盘变得更加糟糕。但是，结果是一样的。对这部分的分析在第二幅图中做了放大说明。 |
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| detailed view. |
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Resources
1. How to apply Cognitive Stock Charts to long-term investments?(under construction)
2. How to apply Cognitive Stock Charts to medium-term investments? (under construction)
3. How to apply Cognitive Stock Charts to short-term investments? (under construction)
